Risk management is not about predicting the future. It is about understanding a project and making a better decision regarding the management of that project, tomorrow. To achieve this aim a systematic approach is followed to identify the risk sources, then quantify their effects (risk analysis), hence develop management responses to risk, and finally to provide for residual risk in project estimates. These stages comprise the process of risk management. Risk management can be one of the most creative tasks of project management. The benefits of risk management can be summarized as follows:
- Project issues are clarified, understood and considered from the start;
- Decisions are supported by thorough analysis;
- The definition and structure of the project are continually monitored;
- Clearer understanding of specific risks associated with a project.
- Build-up of historical data to assist future risk management procedures.
Various case studies related to different engineering fields and engineering systems will be discussed.
Course General Objectives:
At the completion of this course, the participants will be able to:
- To develop understanding of the general principles of risk management and increases the participants awareness on risk management implementation in the industry.
- To enable participants and future risk assessors to visualize the risk management strategy and enable them to find solutions to respond to these risks within their engineering projects or business growth.
- To enable the participants to examine the potential pitfall along with the project’s overall time, cost and quality targets, enables them to consider risk efficiency.
- Learn the principles of risk assessment and management and how and when it can be implemented towards achieving project objectives;
- Develop the sense in identifying the hazards and risks sources and explore sufficient knowledge in creating the risk assessment and management model incase such hazards turned to be future risks.
- Become familiar with the different risk assessment techniques and decision models
- Participants will have confidence in assessing project risks and responding for such risks with the most efficient mitigation strategies;
- Develop the experience in the risks calculations and taking decisions towards wise risk management strategies;
- Develop high awareness to deal with risk environment and its exposures.
- Through the case studies participants will visualize the efficient systematic approach of classifying the risks, calculating the risks factors for their projects which will help them in managing their projects smoothly.
Projects managers and engineers of national, provincial and local building construction or highways agencies and Construction contractors’ engineers and project managers who deal with major or mega projects including the projects under joint ventures agreements or design build contracts.
1. Nature of risk and its definition
2. Introduction risk management
3. Risk assessment and management definitions and concepts
4. Risk vs. uncertainty
5. Risk assessment life cycle
6. Risk management vs. project management
7. Benefits of risk management
8. Risk analysis and management
9. Risk efficiency
10. Role of risk management in engineering systems
11. Decision making in risk management
12. The risk management strategy
13. The process of managing risks
14. Identification and initial assessment
· Controllable and uncontrollable risks
15. Risk Management Response and Mitigation
· The Delphi technique
· Expert systems
· Combined approach
· Qualitative assessment
· Classification and reference
· Description of the risk
· Risk trigger
· Relationship to other risks
· Potential impact
· Likelihood of occurrence
· Risk avoidance
16. Detailed quantitative assessment of risk
· Risk reduction
· Risk transfer
· Residual or retained risk
· A brief introduction to statistics
17. The Risk Management Regime
· Methods of risk assessment
· Simple assessment
· Probabilistic analysis
· Multiple estimating using risk analysis
· Break-even analysis
· Sensitivity analysis
· Decision trees models
· Monte Carlo Simulation
· Latin Hypercube sampling
· Accident models
18. Risk classification
· Contingency management
19. Aggregating individual project risks
20. Internal, specific and external risks
Participants will be working in groups to apply Risk Management-Assessment to engineering cases. Participants will also discuss the effects and benefits of their efforts in the Seminar interactively.
Risk Analysis in Engineering: Techniques, Tools and Trends, by Mohammad Modarres, Taylor & Francis (2006).
Quantitative risk assessment: the scientific platform / Terje Aven. Cambridge, UK; New York : Cambridge University Press, 2011.
Probability Concepts in Engineering Planning and Design, vol. 1, Basic Principles. Ang, A. H-S., and W. H. Tang. New York, NY: John Wiley & Sons, 1975.
Probability Concepts in Engineering Planning and Design, vol. 2, Decision, Risks, and Reliability. Ang, A. H-S., and W. H. Tang. New York, NY: John Wiley & Sons, 1975.
System Reliability Theory: Models, Statistical Methods, and Applications. 2nd ed. Rausand, M., and A. Hoyland.New York, NY: John Wiley & Sons, 2003.
Yasser Abdelghany, Ph.D., P.Eng.
Dr. Yasser Abdelghany is the Construction Standards and Contracts Engineer at the Ministry of Transportation & Infrastructure (Government of British Columbia in Canada) and a Visiting Professor at University of Victoria (UVIC) New Civil Engineering Department (Geotechnical Engineering) and at Western Ontario University (UWO) Civil and Environmental Engineering Department in which he taught post graduate courses. He is a Professional Engineer in British Columbia, Ontario; and Alberta and a member of the Transportation Research Board TRB - AFS30 Foundations for Bridges and other structures committee (Term 2011-2014 and 2014-2017). A holder of a Ph.D. in Civil Engineering (Geotechnical Engineering) from the University of Western Ontario (UWO) in 2008; Thesis - “Monotonic and Cyclic Behaviour of Helical Screw Piles Under Axial and Lateral Loading” and a Master’s and Bachelor’s of Science in Construction Engineering in 2002 and 1998 respectively from American University in Cairo (AUC); Theses - “Classification of Risks for International Construction Joint ventures Projects” and “Seismic Structural Design for High-rise Residential Buildings respectively. He is also an author and Co-author of more than twenty technical papers in various fields of civil engineering and business management.
Dr. Abdelghany has a patent for “Innovative Seismic Resistant Helical Screw Piles” and is a holder of an Ontario Centre of Excellence award in 2007 held in Toronto for his research on Seismic Helical Screw Piles and a Best Research Paper in 2002 in the International Conference for Computers and Industrial Engineering held in Greece “Tinos Island” for his research on “A Decision Support System for Classification of Risks for International Construction Joint Ventures Projects” and holder of the Power Corporation of Canada Award 2003/2004 from Quebec. Dr. Abdelghany taught different Civil Engineering and Construction Management courses to Undergraduate, Graduate, and Other professional Engineers Canada wide.
Dr. Abdelghany has over 17 years of varied engineering experience within International Engineering contracting firms ranked by engineering news records (ENR) in which he managed different Engineering, Procurement and Construction (EPC) and Design Build (DB) and Build Operate Transfer (BOT) projects overseas among them an approximate 5 Km Utility Tunnel, multiple Oil and Gas projects, different highways and bridges construction and management overseas in which he provided unique management and contracts delivery services. Also he worked in multiple Erosion control and slope stability projects by Lake Erie, multifunction structures seismic repairs in Ontario, British Columbia. Different slope stability and earth structures and deep foundations design in different projects across Alberta and Ontario.
Among his employers, Dr. Abdelghany worked for several years with gigantic petroleum corporations, Mobil Oil, and ExxonMobil overseas as Projects and Maintenance Engineer (Lubricants and Projects Specialities (L&S) in the logistics and order fulfillment department. Dr. Abdelghany is also a Certified Risk Assessor, Gas Detector, & Issuing Authority by ExxonMobil International Corporation. Dr. Abdelghany managed multiple projects with Mobil Oil and then, ExxonMobil following the merger in 1999. Moreover he worked as a researcher for Concordia and Western Ontario Universities.
He is an active member in different Civil Engineering and Construction Societies and Sub Committees such as Canadian Society of Civil Engineers Construction Division Committee; Canadian Geotechnical Society (CGS); International Society of Soil Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering (ISSMGE); Member of Deep Foundations Institute and Helical Piles & Tiebacks Committee and Chair of the Helical Piles & Tiebacks Seminar held in Vancouver June 2013; He also a member of the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE); a Certified Construction Project Supervisor (CCPS) by American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) and reviewer for the Canadian Geotechnical Journal and Deep Foundations Journal. Further, he was nominated for Association of Professional Engineers and Geoscientists of British Columbia (APEGBC) Council Elections 2009/2010 and 2010/2011 and 2011/2012 and 2013/2014.