The global climate is changing and altering the hydrologic cycle that results in:
- reduction of water supply,
- increase in frequency and magnitude of flood and drought events
- damage to the shoreline areas,
- increase in irrigation water use,
- decrease in quality of all freshwater sources, and
- increase in functional and operational requirements for the existing water infrastructure.
The seminar will begin with the review of water resources management challenges posed by the climate change. In order to provide guidance for including climate change impacts into water management studies, a generic approach is detailed for potential implementation in practice. Methods for selecting global climate models and emission scenarios, followed by bias correction and downscaling are discussed. The following presentations will focus on how to bring future climate change into water resources engineering practice today.
The second presentation provides an example on how to address future climate change in current water resources engineering practice. The presentation will review one practical example, IDF_CC, a web-based tool for updating intensity duration frequency curves under changing climate. The tool is designed in response to real needs of water engineering practice and has been in use in Canada since early 2015.
The presentation will briefly:
- explain the theoretical background of the IDF_CC tool,
- provide quick tutorial, and
- focus on its use in practice.
The third presentation is aimed at consequences of changing conditions. Climate and other globally changing conditions (land-use, population, etc.) are calling for a new decision-making paradigm. In the past, standard water resources management considered arrangements for planning, design, and operations using risk management as one of the driving decision-making criteria. However, over the last 10 years substantial progress has been made in establishing the role of resilience in sustainable management of water resources. Multiple case studies around the world reveal links between attributes of resilience and the capacity of complex water resources systems to absorb disturbance while still being able to maintain a certain level of functioning. Use of resilience as an appropriate matrix for investigation arises from the integral consideration of overlap between: (a) physical environment (built and natural); (b) social dynamics; (c) metabolic flows; and (d) governance networks. This presentation provides an original systems framework for quantification of resilience. The framework is based on the definition of resilience as the ability of systems to absorb disturbance while still being able to continue functioning. The detailed explanation of the resilience measure and analytical procedure for its implementation will be provided.
- Water resources engineering challenges posed by climate change.
- Bringing future climate change into current water resources engineering practice—IDF_CC, a web-based tool for updating intensity duration frequency curves under changing climate.
- From risk to resilience—quantitative assessment of decision-making options under changing conditions.
This seminar will be of value to all water resources management practitioners interested in climate change and its impacts on water resources management. Many aspects of the seminar will be of interest to consulting engineers, researchers, and graduate students too. The first and second sessions of the seminar will be of value to many officials involved with climate change policy making at all government levels. The second and third sessions will be of high value to engineers and officials working with municipal governments.
Each participant will be provided with the following material:
- Seminar lectures,
- Selected literature on climate change and resilience, and
- Technical documentation on the IDF_CC tool.
University of Western Ontario and Slobodan P. Simonovic Consulting Ltd.
Slobodan P. Simonovic is globally recognized for his unique interdisciplinary research in Systems Analysis and the development of deterministic and stochastic simulation, optimization, multi criteria analysis, and other decision-making methodologies. His work is addressing challenging system of systems problems lying at the confluence of society, technology and the environment, and has been applied with a sustainable development perspective in water resources management, hydrology, energy, climate change, and public infrastructure. His main contributions include modelling risk and resilience of complex systems.
Professor Simonovic has influenced academia, industry, and government via university teaching, publication of leading-edge research, mentoring of young people, delivering stimulating research seminars at institutions around the world, carrying out joint research projects, and consulting work. He has received awards for excellence in teaching, research and outreach.
Dr. Simonovic has published over 530 professional publications (over 220 in peer reviewed Journals) and 3 major textbooks. He has delivered over 260 keynote and invited talks. (Citation index 9414 and H index 50 as of July 2018) and has been inducted to the Canadian Academy of Engineering in June of 2013.
- Subject Matter: Systems modelling, risk management, resilience modelling, water resources and environmental systems analysis, computer-based decision support systems development, water resources education and training.
- Topical Area: Flood control, hydropower energy, reservoirs, operational hydrology, climatic change, integrated water resources management.